Monday, August 27, 2012


An Update

September 16, 2012

One more alternative for the bulls. The "E" of "C" may have ended on September, 6 at 52xx as a diametric (instead of as a neutral triangle as under). Not much change in targets etc.. But the sharp reaction to the "reforms", the downside break on the INR (a major B or 2 ending there on the same date?) and the coinciding of global risk-on.. all lend support to the bullish view.

The policy announcements may not be much in substance, but can be huge in terms of sentiment after everyone has given up on the Govt. RBI may oblige by a CRR and/or repo cut tomorrow. 

Is this is indeed the turning point? Odds are good.. Lets see the follow through action both by Govt & by the Markets....


Throughout the bear market of last two years, few things stood out. The index barely corrected (much lesser than the usual killer stuff that C waves are supposed to produce). However, much to the chagrin of speculative beta-chasers (yours truly included), the mid-caps' pricing got damaged as much as in 2008; in few cases even more so. A heavy dose of pessimism and bad news pervaded and does so even now. Interestingly, the broad Elliott count and the targets we looked at more than 1 year ago needed no change. 

As we are in the middle of our time target, does the price give any indication of reversal? We had few excitements in June & July, but so far close but no cigar. Intuitively, the negative news, the one-sided fund managers' view, the good picture on INR all lead to a potential bullish structure as below. Need 6k+ in 1 month for validation and below 49xx for invalidation... If looking for in-between alternatives, try "chart dreams" courtesy FIRE and Shailesh's comments in the Third Eye (see alongside for links)

True to label, we need to await confirmations on either side; But no harm in wishing for a turnaround on behalf of a lot of tired bulls.........



Bullish Cartel said...

Any particluar reason for this

Need 6k+ in 1 month for validation and below 49xx for invalidation?

KRG said...

On the 6k+, pls see the first point in the previous post. 4900 is more of a self-imposed review trigger. One logic is that the market has broken out of the broad range of 4.5-5 k and re-entry in that zone may require reassessment


AAR VEE said...

Wishing A Happy ,Healthy and Prosperous Diwali !!!


AAR VEE said...


With Warm Regards

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