Thursday, January 27, 2011

Has Nifty Started the Killer "C"?

In Elliott Wave parlance, C waves are the killer ones in terms of destroying the price built up steadily (and over a lot of time) by B waves. Most EW counts on Nifty look at 2008 as end of a major impulse (say 3 or 5 of some degree) and the Jan 2008-March 2009 (14 mths) as wave "A" of a larger degree correction. The "B" has by Nov 2010 retraced the entire downmove. Has it ended thereby looking at a potential flat correction?    Let us look at two alternatives of the internal structure of this "B"

(1) Mar 2009-Oct 2009  (A) and Oct 2009-May2010  (B).. If this is the case then both A & B have taken about 7 months each. One of the theories of Neo-wave is that if the initial two legs of the correction take equal time then the third can be expected to take the same time that the initial two did; in this case, it would imply a period of 14 months. We are then looking at a time frame of Jul-Aug 2010 2011 for ending the C of B. These time lines are marked by the vertical bold lines. The internal structure of this C could be a terminal. The reason I say this is because the May 2010-Nov 2010 move seems to be corrective in design and contrary to what many blogs are mentioning, does not look impulsive. So Nov 2010 becomes the first of the terminal, and we are in the second. Two important fibonacci targets for the second would be 5570 & 5380. It could be expected that we have a turn-around from here or one of these points for the next three legs of the terminal. The price could be side-ways to moderately positive, may or may not make a new high.
(2) An alternative count would be to treat the initial burst from March 2009 (till Jun 2009) as the A wave (marked by the dotted vertical line) . The B wave possibly stays at May 2010. In this case since the A & B have taken distinctly different time zones, the C can be expected to take half of that viz., 7 months. If so, then there is a good case for us to have ended the C and the major "B" at 6184 of Jan-2011 (dotted vertical line). The move from May 2010 to Jan 2011 can be counted as five waves of an expanding triangle (the second of which is a running correction and the last a failure).This fits with the overall C of B being exactly 62% of A. And fits with the overall B ending at the top nearer to where the correction started.     

Looking at the interest rates (see the previous update), alternative 2 seems preferred. However, sentiment-wise, the market was not super-buillish at the recent highs. Should B wave top be marked by a higher level of overall optimism and retail participation as compared to 5? If so then, a longer correction posssibly making moderately new highs but accompanied by higher optimism would tilt the scale for Case 1. Case 2 will require quick price damage and below 5380 for more conviction if not outright confirmation.Take a look at the chart of one of the bell weather stocks, RIL; A downside break here looks a very tough possibility thus increasing the chances for our Case 1




Jatin said...

plz upload bigger charts. cant figure out labels in such smaller images.

KRG said...

I just added a link; Pls try ; I know it has been a problem downloading reuters images


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