As we enter the new FY, here is an ultra bullish potential alternative for the asset prices in India.
We had earlier talked about the slow grind up as the preferred alternative with the large "C" taking its own time in a terminal fashion; the slow grind down as the second preference and a further less likely quick collapse of values.
This latest one may be labelled as the fool's hope; For one, it is the fools day. And barring good chances of a WC win, it is quite difficult to see any fundamental logic (or trigger assuming that there is no logic in markets) for such an ultra-bullish view [mind you, we are talking atleast 7.4k here (A=C), if not more... ideally it should be much more since in the larger picture, May 09-Mar 11 is seen as a running correction!]?
Incidentally, the last triangle in Nifty is seen by many as a continuation of sorts, with the break-out on the upside being a surprise. In my own view, the whole pattern based TA has been turned upside down in the last few years with an increase in the number of (i) triangle reversals (ii) continuation break-out of what looks like ending diagonals and (iii) triangles and diametrics and complex corrections. Perhaps, this is the way markets outsmart fools like us... Hopefully more on this another time..
Incidentally, the last triangle in Nifty is seen by many as a continuation of sorts, with the break-out on the upside being a surprise. In my own view, the whole pattern based TA has been turned upside down in the last few years with an increase in the number of (i) triangle reversals (ii) continuation break-out of what looks like ending diagonals and (iii) triangles and diametrics and complex corrections. Perhaps, this is the way markets outsmart fools like us... Hopefully more on this another time..
Updated: Now that the Cup is ours and the bullishness seems to spread, here are couple of variations of the bullish themes.
The first one (count marked in blue) is a diametric starting from March 2009. As per this we should be in the last wave. If we go by A=G, then we can see the 7.4 k; remember A was 2k.
The second is another variation of the preferred weak (!) upside, marked in black, a triangle with a sharp first wave.
Below 5180 revisits the bear while break of 6180 critical for the upside
[A word of caution on the adjectives such as slow and sharp. They are relative to other waves. The first wave off the lows was of 2000 points in 4 months. All the subsequent ones, even though they have done quite a bit in terms of length, the overall strength was relatively low and slow].
2 comments:
I hope ur not fooling us today ;)
dont scare little bears like me with ur super bullish counts :d
Jazz: Let us look at the chances of major B ending either at 6338 or 6180.
(1) I am not very sure that Neo-wave tests of impulsion are met for the down move since Nov/Jan
(2) To confirm reversal, the down move should have been faster. I think if Nifty doesnot break 4810 in another month, the chances of this get slimmer. If Jan is taken as the reversal point, then this gets extended
(3) I also find it surprising that many blogs show impulsive counts on the downside, but have not found the latest upmove impulsive. It could be a “c” wave of some pattern and could be reversed fast, but while it lasts, downside doesnot look appealing to me
(4) I find the last triangle reversal very interesting. First time I saw such counts at neo-wave, I was very surprised. Now I have started expecting them as a rule (almost if not every time)
Despite the above, I still prefer a “slow grind up” and a possible failure at 6.3k. This is becos of the previous failure at 6180. The above 7.4k is a fools day “hope” alternative
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